CDU-Department of Treasury and Finance Demographic Research Seminar

This seminar has been prepared for the Northern Territory Government's Department of Treasury and Finance and is open and free for the public to attend. 

The Demography and Growth Planning team at Charles Darwin University's Northern Institute have a long-standing collaboration with the Department of Treasury and Finance to undertake independent research on Territory population issues, build capacity for population analysis and bring Territory population issues to the national stage. Each year we present some of our research via a seminar. This seminar showcases a small slice of our research for 2023 and 2024. We thank the Department of Treasury and Finance for their ongoing support for independent demographic research at CDU. Learn more about us: Demography and growth planning

Presentations:

Sigurd Dyrting

Building a Human Internal Migration Database

Internal migration probabilities and fertility and mortality rates are the primary processes used to understand the dynamics and spatial structure of population change. Researchers studying births and deaths can access historical data for various countries through The Human Fertility Database and the Human Mortality Database. Still, there is no Human Internal Migration Database (HIMD). In this presentation, we discuss the challenges of building a HIMD. Then, focus on one aspect of the problem: estimating migration probabilities from data on grouped ages. We will show how this problem can be solved with P-TOPALS and P-spline methods developed for smoothing probabilities. We also illustrate this for more than 50 countries using microdata samples from IPUMS International.

Mini bio: Dr Sigurd Dyrting is a Northern Institute (CDU) demographer specialising in applying mathematical, statistical, and computational methods to demographic problems. His research includes estimation techniques for small populations, emphasising preparing inputs practitioners use for demographic analysis and population projections. 
 

David Karácsonyi

Population Impacts from extreme weather hazards in the Northern Territory amid climate change

In light of the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events due to climate change, it is essential to study the demographic impacts of past events, including droughts, heatwaves, bushfires, cyclones, and floods. This is crucial for assessing and predicting the scale, composition, and policy implications of these events. The Northern Territory is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather, including the downstream effects on its ability to attract and retain population. In this presentation, longitudinal demographic trajectories of NT communities will be analysed to identify and understand the impacts of past events and gain insights into future risks.

Mini bio: Dr David Karacsonyi is a Northern Institute (CDU) researcher focussing on the human geography of remote and peripheral areas. His most recent works relate to understanding the human–geography of sparsely populated regions such as the Australian' Outback'.

Tom Wilson

Is it worth producing population forecasts for the Northern Territory?

Population projections and forecasts for the Northern Territory have been produced regularly for many decades. Unfortunately, they generally turn out to be higher or lower than actual populations measured years later, sometimes by a wide margin. Such errors, in fact, affect population forecasts the world over. It raises the question: is it really worth producing population forecasts for the NT (and other subnational areas) if they are going to miss the mark? I argue that it is. Many social and economic processes, including population, are only forecastable to a certain extent. It would be useful, therefore, if the inherent uncertainty in population forecasts was always made clear alongside the main forecast. This presentation introduces a new type of subnational probabilistic forecasting model, which creates population forecasts with uncertainty ranges.

Mini bio: Dr Tom Wilson is a consulting demographer who works regularly with State, Territory and Commonwealth Government departments and organisations overseas. He is a former member of the CDU demography team and retains an adjunct affiliation with CDU.

Andrew Taylor

The post-pandemic rebound in NT overseas migration: Where do we sit?

The COVID-19 Pandemic ground global overseas migration to a halt, creating a large 'leading loss' of population for Australia and it's States and Territories. But more than two years after the re-opening of Australian borders, net overseas migration to Australia and the NT has surged due to pent-up demand. In this talk, I present an analysis of the most recent data to dissect the relative strength and composition of the post-pandemic rebound in the NT compared to elsewhere and look at which source countries and visa types are leading the way, as well as identifying those which have not recovered and might be opportunities for future growth. 

Mini bio: Associate Professor Andrew Taylor is an applied population researcher at CDU's Northern Institute. He worked for a decade at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, starting as a graduate in the Darwin office, and joined CDU in 2004 as a researcher.

Registration

This event is in person only and will not be recorded.  Please RSVP for catering purposes:

RSVP to attend in person

Getting there

Festival Learning Space, Level 1 - left side of the main entry way, across from the Art Gallery.

Danala Education and Community Precinct
54 Cavenagh Street, Darwin City, NT, 0800
Google Maps Location

^{Access: If you have any additional access or support requirements, please contact us. Level 1 is street level and has bathrooms, CDU student services and security available on this floor. Please note that there will be directional signs on the event day and that the underground car parking is not available yet so please use the surrounding street parking.}